Thursday, October 2, 2008

Factcheck.org on the economic crisis

Factcheck.org took a rather factually incomplete -and thus insufficient- stab at an explanation of the current economic crisis (or at least something that looks like one). They chose to stick with the whole "there's enough blame to go around' mantra, but not only did they end up not informing the general public of the central links in this particular chain of events, but several of their 'facts' happen to contradict one another as well. They said...

So who is to blame? There's plenty of blame to go around, and it doesn't fasten only on one party or even mainly on what Washington did or didn't do. As The Economist magazine noted recently, the problem is one of "layered irresponsibility ... with hard-working homeowners and billionaire villains each playing a role." Here's a partial list of those alleged to be at fault:

* The Federal Reserve, which slashed interest rates after the dot-com bubble burst, making credit cheap.

* Home buyers, who took advantage of easy credit to bid up the prices of homes excessively.

* Congress, which continues to support a mortgage tax deduction that gives consumers a tax incentive to buy more expensive houses.

* Real estate agents, most of whom work for the sellers rather than the buyers and who earned higher commissions from selling more expensive homes.

* The Clinton administration, which pushed for less stringent credit and downpayment requirements for working- and middle-class families.

* Mortgage brokers, who offered less-credit-worthy home buyers subprime, adjustable rate loans with low initial payments, but exploding interest rates.

* Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who in 2004, near the peak of the housing bubble, encouraged Americans to take out adjustable rate mortgages.

* Wall Street firms, who paid too little attention to the quality of the risky loans that they bundled into Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), and issued bonds using those securities as collateral.

* The Bush administration, which failed to provide needed government oversight of the increasingly dicey mortgage-backed securities market.

* An obscure accounting rule called mark-to-market, which can have the paradoxical result of making assets be worth less on paper than they are in reality during times of panic.

* Collective delusion, or a belief on the part of all parties that home prices would keep rising forever, no matter how high or how fast they had already gone up.


With all the links this thing adds up to a lot to reading, so I'll just try to be as concise as possible. The contradiction which I previously alluded to, concerns the supposed blame which has been designated to the President. In the article they cited, it is said that:

These experts, from both political parties, say Bush's early personnel choices and overarching antipathy toward regulation created a climate that, if it did not trigger the turmoil, almost certainly aggravated it. The president's first two Treasury secretaries, for instance, lacked the kind of Wall Street expertise that might have helped them raise red flags about the use of complex financial instruments at the heart of the crisis.


The article doesn't make clear what exactly does the supposed lack of 'Wall St. expertise' of the first two Treasury secretaries have to do with any 'antipathy towards regulation'. Furthermore, the issue of the President's position on regulation is clearly irrelevant to the current crisis since deregulation wasn't a causal factor in this crisis. This attempt at casting further aspersion upon an already unpopular President is even furthermore contradicted by the very next sentence in the same cited article.

To his credit, Bush accurately foresaw the danger posed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and began calling as early as 2002 for greater regulation of the mortgage giants


How ironic is it that someone with such a reputation of having such 'antipathy towards regulation', would end up being the first to call for regulation nonetheless. Irony truly is the spice of life I suppose...

Not only does factcheck.org contradict themselves by citing this article which implicitly blames deregulation for the crisis shortly after their own article rules it out as a causal factor in this crisis; but the cited article ends up acknowledging that Bush was in fact pursuing regulation of Freddie and Fannie, all the while the author is trying to cast Bush's affinity for deregulated markets as an actual factor in this crisis! Now I know a lot of folks don't like the guy too much, but fair is fair. Their attempt at factually establishing the culpability of the Bush administration in this is vacuous and asinine.

Could the Bush administration have done more though? I feel he fulfilled his part as far as sounding the alarm on the threat from Freddie and Fannie. However if he intended to avoid having to share blame for this crash, then he probably should have bitten the political bullet of taking as very hard and very public stand against government mandated subprime lending all together. It certainly wouldn't have been politically expedient for him to do so, but when you think about it a bit, it wouldn't have been politically expedient for him to make an executive order to the FAA to implement all the security measures that are currently practiced, pre-9/11.

Factcheck.org's blaming of 'mark to market' accounting rules is an exercise in vanity as well. The value of something your trying to sell is always dictated by what the buyer is willing to pay (i.e the market).

I do applaud their noting that the 'collective delusion' that surrounded this since I feel there's not enough is being said about that matter. They also, wisely, dismissed the farce that derugation somehow caused this.

However if I was to begin to offer a brief defense of Alan Greenspan, I'd start with noting that the article fails to take into account that he too called for more regulation of Freddie and Fannie in 2003. Factcheck.org also fails to make *any* mention of the accounting scandals of Freddie Mac in 2003 and 2004, and how it was that they they managed to wiggle their way out of the consequences. No, instead end the article in the following manner:

The U.S. economy is enormously complicated. Screwing it up takes a great deal of cooperation. Claiming that a single piece of legislation was responsible for (or could have averted) is just political grandstanding. We have no advice to offer on how best to solve the financial crisis. But these sorts of partisan caricatures can only make the task more difficult.

What happened here is not nearly as complicated as it seems once you've removed the contradictions and inaccurate aspersions which factcheck.org cited as if they were 'facts', and afterwards add the missing link which makes sense of all this. It was the government who initially put pressure on Freddie and Fannie to make these subprime loans. This was a corruption of the market at it's very roots. What else could it have done but fail?

Friday, September 26, 2008

YOU HAVE BEEN DUPED BUT YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE A DOPE ABOUT IT!!!

I watched the President's press conference on the current economic crisis the other day. He has done the best job at articulating (imagine that!) the general narrative of how we got to where we are now. His speech covered the gambit from the initial influx of cash from foreign investors and the resultant credit expansion, to the supply of newly built houses exceeding that of the demand for the same, and in addition, those 'homeowners' who were essentially gambling on the real estate market.

However I do feel he provided political cover for the Democrats by leaving out the vital links in this chain of events that directly led to this crash. The President didn't mention the inherent hybrid nature of these so called privately-owned, though government created, Frankenstein's (i.e.'Freddy Mac, and Fannie Mae') as government sponsored enterprises (GSE). He also (I think foolishly) remained mum concerning the pressure Washington Democrats put on these companies to make those disastrous loans in the first place. Not to mention the inconspicuous willingness to look the other way (i.e. they would NOT regulate matters they should have been regulating, even in a free market) by the same folks who were filling the coffers of their respective campaigns with the money of these same companies.

The culpability Congress in our current financial woes, via the nature of their special relationship with the GSE's (Fannie and Freddy), have been confirmed by people much more intelligent and informed than myself. The destructive [democratic] policies which led us to this crisis played out exactly as anticipated even back in 1999. But I guess it's no surprise that you still have dopy politicians(in an election year no less) continuing to propagate the farce that blame somehow lies with the 'Bush tax cuts' and the presumed failure of free market economics. What a crock!

REALITY CHECK: Tax cuts have nothing to do with whether or not someone can pay down a mortgage they should have never gotten in the first place (...at least not in any sense that these democrats really want to discuss). And by definition you don't have a free market in play when the government attempts to manipulate the market via GSE's, regardless of their 'good intentions' (and we know what they say about 'good intentions').

Anyways, if your one who buys Senator Obama's asinine assertion that this current crisis is a failure of free market economics, then I invite you have your consciousness raised by reading the articles which I've linked. YOU HAVE BEEN DUPED BUT YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE A DOPE ABOUT IT!!!

Sunday, September 21, 2008

What's up with the 'system bro'!

Charles MacKay's ‘Extraordinarily Popular delusion’ (particularly the first chapter on ‘The Mississippi Scheme’) is pretty great for an understanding of the real factors which lead to the current crisis in our economy. Economic ‘bubbles’ are one thing, but flat out mass ‘delusions’ derived from phony goldmines are another matter entirely. The delusion which has led to our latest economic was dependent on the notion that someone -ANYONE- would actually be able to collect interest (the real bread and butter of financial institutions) from folks who should have never been allowed to obtained the loans they got.

Yes there are abuses that need to be investigated and prosecuted. CEO's guilty of cooking their books in order to give the appearance that their businesses were profitable so that they might get their pay outs pushed through, and thereby deceiving and leading to the financial ruin of their stockholders, deserve everything they got coming to them (or at least should have coming to them). But to blame foreclosures merely on Wall St. is to not learn the important lessons we should be taking from this, so as to NEVER repeat them.

A fact that keeps getting lost in the political rhetoric -from both sides- is that even if companies hadn't bought the ‘bad loans’, not only would there have been NO excuses for a bail out (i.e. the supposed ruin of the entire market, which I don’t particularly buy), but homes in or on the verge of foreclosure, would STILL be in or on the verge of foreclosure regardless. Why? Because the people can’t afford the houses they live in. They've bitten off more than they could chew. Their eyes were bigger than there stomachs. Their mouths wrote check that their... oh you get the picture.

How about when everyone has sobered from their populist binging a la ranting against the Wall St. 'system bro', we launch an investigation into the excesses of all the greedy folks with bad credit! But alas, some poor politician would have to fall on his/her sword to do so because we can’t handle the truth…

The Great Depression should be studied as well. I’d hope that in doing so, particular note is taken of the crucial role mass panic played in those economic disasters (for therein lies the folly of the rhetoric of politicians like Obama). IMHO, the ONLY benefit of the Federal Reserve (FDIC) has been to reassure savers that their deposits and savings are secure regardless, thus keeping folks from doing the ONE thing that WILL lead to the financial collapse the socialist left keeps heralding…

Like Obama, I believe we need to go talk to our neighbors, and ‘get in their face’ and say, ‘Jerk, you knew you couldn’t afford that house when you got it. Hell you make $50,000 a year, have a family of 4, with a $400,000 mortgage for crying out loud!!!’ (I have an idiot brother who actually did that one. I dunno about the 50K though).

Thanks Jesse Jackson! Thanks Rev. Al! Thanks Bill Clinton et al!!! Thank to everyone who bought in to that mind fart notion that home ownership is the birthright of all Americans. That is if it's not merely a down payment on reparations for the ‘institutionalized racism’ exhibited in a system that would actually have the ‘audacity’ to tell folks with bad credit (white, black, turquoise, whatever) ‘YOUR NOT APPROVED’, and ‘hope’ they’d have sense enough to understand…

Get it? ‘Audacity of Hope’? Lol!… Ok that’s enough…

Saturday, September 20, 2008

NObama!

Obama and his minions are blaming deregulation for the current financial crisis. But in fact it was regulation via the pressure Democrats put on 'Freddy and Fannie' to make those bad loans which both initiated and sustained this 'crisis'. The housing crisis is a clear example of what happens when government sticks their nose in a free market.

No politician wants to say it, but the fact is this particular house of cards fell because people could not afford the mortgages they were NOT qualified for, but allowed to get anyhow (due to the pressure from government to lend). Furthermore, many of these 'innocent' homeowners were knowingly taking a gamble -with odds they clearly overestimated- that they could sell the house for a profit before the real terms of that loan kicked in...

This is a train that was set in motion by the government's direct interference with (i.e. corruption of) the free market, thus leading to an inevitable -and very predictable- collision with reality. In my opinion it is totally fitting that the government stepped in to bail out the same, since government is the reason why this all started in the first place. Nonetheless, whether these companies needed to be bailed out or not doesn't change the facts on the ground. Whenever you can't pay your mortgage then your going to have to either refinance, take on an extra job, or move somewhere you can afford. Living according to your means is not a tragedy but a great way to keep your peace of mind...

The real abuses on Wall St. occurred when books were intentionally cooked so that those CEO's could get their money before abandoning ship, all the while duping stock holders who have thus been financially ruined by the whole fiasco. The interesting part is that these same corrupt companies didn't fail to make their rounds giving out campaign donations though. Who were they giving money to and why is the question...

Like it or not McCain and Bush are the only ones on the record calling for more regulation of these companies (2-3 yrs ago), and the Democrats are on the record blocking regulation. Now this isn't all that strange given the fact that they've spent the last 6 yrs adopting a totally anti-republican position on everything. However what is odd is that Democrats happened to be getting really hefty campaign donations from those same dirty companies.

Riddle me this then: How is it that republicans are the supposed enablers this corruption via deregulation, and yet if we follow the money trail, these companies appear be demonstrably more enthralled with supposed regulation loving Democrats like Senator Obama and Senator Dodd? You certainly don't see the same dynamic with the oil industry...

My first thought was that the Dems probably just threw better parties, but then a truly disturbing but more enlightening consideration occurred to me. If Democrats supposedly love regulation so much, then why exactly wouldn't they jump at any invitation (from Bush or anybody) to engage in their favorite pastime? Methinks they knew very well what was coming, and saw a political opportunity (since they don't have Iraq any more).

Think what you may, but therein lies the very type of corrupt Washington politics which need to be reformed Mrs. Barbara Walters. The numbers (i.e. the money) are very telling, and they DON'T lie. According to those numbers, Obama is neck deep in the very back room wheeling and dealing he pretends to be the cure for. Face it folks, there is a reason why this guy has friends like Tony Rescko and Jim Johnson. No you can't 'run from your words or your record' sir!

WE NEED THE CHANGE SENATOR NOBAMA HAS TO OFFER ABOUT AS MUCH AS WE ACTUALLY NEED TO BE DEPENDENT ON FOREIGN OIL!

Disparate, not Desperate! No Obama for me thanks...

First off let me just say go McCain/Palin!....

Lately the Obama camp has been insinuating that Senator McCain is getting desperate. Desperate? That's a really interesting choice of words given that for months now Obama and his cohorts have been running about decreeing the impending doom of civilization itself, and assuring us of the coming descent of the celestial regions upon us all . In response to the recent turmoil on Walls St. Senator Obama apparently judged that the *inexcusably* irresponsible, and not to mention historically ignorant, declaration of the advent of 'The Great Depression' sequel, to be expedient to the ends of his campaign. Did it ever occurr to him that he'd be stirring on the very kind of anxiety that happens to be the tested and proven key for making that dream of his an actuality...

When Obama and his buddies aren't busy yelling 'fire' in crowded theaters we can find them all over the record (along with their other buddies in the media) literally attempting to incite panic on every subject under the sun, ALL for the single-minded purpose of stirring on just enough anxiety to get Obama and his really thin resume elected. Cause that's all he actually has to run on you know, i.e., the angst NOT the 'hopes' of the nation. But I guess when the interest of society comes into conflict with their sole agenda, then as far as they're concerned, society be damned...

The way these folks carry on you would never know that 95% of homeowners pay their mortgages just fine, the unemployment rate which has risen to 6.1% is still far better than most of our European buddies(?), we're actually winning the war on terror, tax cuts actually lead to higher government revenue - thus clearly showing our deficits to be a matter of spending not taxes; America is still the leader in innovation in the world and thus can't be 'falling behind'; and despite 9/11, natural disasters at home and abroad (cause people don't like us much but they know where to turn when they're in a bind), AND two wars our economy has managed growth this whole time ( a boast most of our good European buddies can't join in)...

*GASP*

No wonder they are so astonished at the notion that the 'fundamentals of our economy are strong'. Spellbound and completely caught up in their bare naked demagoguery, they've effectively become 'out of touch' with reality...

Unlike Senator Obama with his matching suits and words, McCain/Palin need not at all be desperate? In a world where the people are hungry for change, McCain/Palin have record which exhibit the integrity which is essential to one who is truly *disparate* from Washington politics...

And that's exactly what we need in Washington, folks who are truly DISPARATE, and not just another DESPERATE politician who's more anxious to further his own name and party, than to serve the people of his 'country first'!